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MSV Duisburg U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
8/27/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 4BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1932%
×Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg U19
1.47
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.77

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.57
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.10

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.44
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.37

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw
55%
MSV Duisburg U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
77%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
68%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
15%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
77%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
43%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
18%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
83%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
53%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.37 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.10 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
32%
level
23%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
45%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.