MSK Tesla Stropkov 0–2 Novohrad Lučenec

MSK Tesla Stropkov

FT

0 – 2

Novohrad Lučenec

4/23/2023

3. liga - East · East - 23Futbalový štadión MŠK TESLA Stropkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

MSK Tesla Stropkov64%

×Draw20%

Novohrad Lučenec16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSK Tesla StropkovExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.96

MSK Tesla Stropkov

2.12

Novohrad Lučenec

0.96

MSK Tesla Stropkov creates 121% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

2.31

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

MSK Tesla Stropkov

2.31

Novohrad Lučenec

0.95

allows per match

MSK Tesla Stropkov

0.97

Novohrad Lučenec

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSK Tesla Stropkov+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSK Tesla Stropkov ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

MSK Tesla Stropkov or draw

84%

MSK Tesla Stropkov or Novohrad Lučenec

80%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

36%

Winning margin

MSK Tesla Stropkov wins by 2+

40%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

MSK Tesla Stropkov 1+ goals

88%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 2+ goals

62%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 3+ goals

35%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

62%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

25%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

MSK Tesla Stropkov (draw refunded)

80%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSK Tesla Stropkov at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSK Tesla Stropkov attack 2.31 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.12

Novohrad Lučenec attack 0.95 + MSK Tesla Stropkov defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

MSK Tesla Stropkov scores more

64%

level

20%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

16%

MSK Tesla Stropkov at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "MSK Tesla Stropkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff