MSK Tesla Stropkov 3–4 Baník Kalinovo

MSK Tesla Stropkov

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Baník Kalinovo

5/28/2023

3. liga - East · East - 28Futbalový štadión MŠK TESLA Stropkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

MSK Tesla Stropkov68%

×Draw18%

Baník Kalinovo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSK Tesla StropkovExpected goals in this matchBaník Kalinovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.02

MSK Tesla Stropkov

2.40

Baník Kalinovo

1.02

MSK Tesla Stropkov creates 135% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

2.31

creates per match

1.07

0.97

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

MSK Tesla Stropkov

2.31

Baník Kalinovo

1.07

allows per match

MSK Tesla Stropkov

0.97

Baník Kalinovo

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSK Tesla Stropkov+0.00on par

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSK Tesla Stropkov ↓

Baník Kalinovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

MSK Tesla Stropkov or draw

85%

MSK Tesla Stropkov or Baník Kalinovo

82%

Draw or Baník Kalinovo

32%

Winning margin

MSK Tesla Stropkov wins by 2+

45%

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

MSK Tesla Stropkov 1+ goals

91%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 2+ goals

69%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 3+ goals

42%

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals

64%

Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals

27%

Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

MSK Tesla Stropkov (draw refunded)

82%

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSK Tesla Stropkov at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.48 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSK Tesla Stropkov attack 2.31 + Baník Kalinovo defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.40

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.07 + MSK Tesla Stropkov defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

MSK Tesla Stropkov scores more

68%

level

18%

Baník Kalinovo scores more

15%

MSK Tesla Stropkov at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "MSK Tesla Stropkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff