MSK Dnipro Cherkasy vs Rubikon

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy

CANC

14:00

Rubikon

5/14/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 29Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy48%

×Draw24%

Rubikon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSK Dnipro CherkasyExpected goals in this matchRubikon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy

1.71

Rubikon

1.27

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 27 away

1.13

creates per match

0.67

1.88

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy

1.13

Rubikon

0.67

allows per match

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy

1.88

Rubikon

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy+0.00on par

Rubikon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy ↓

Rubikon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy or draw

71%

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy or Rubikon

76%

Draw or Rubikon

52%

Winning margin

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy wins by 2+

25%

Rubikon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy 1+ goals

82%

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy 2+ goals

51%

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy 3+ goals

24%

Rubikon 1+ goals

72%

Rubikon 2+ goals

36%

Rubikon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy (draw refunded)

63%

Rubikon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Rubikon away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy attack 1.13 + Rubikon defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rubikon attack 0.67 + MSK Dnipro Cherkasy defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy scores more

48%

level

24%

Rubikon scores more

29%

MSK Dnipro Cherkasy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MSK Dnipro Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff