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Mrbat vs Sohar — Professional League 2019

Mrbat
Mrbat
FT
0 – 4
Sohar
Sohar
9/21/2019Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 2The Salalah Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mrbat27%
×Draw27%
Sohar46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mrbat
1.03
Sohar
1.44

Sohar creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Mrbat
0.69
Sohar
1.10

allows per match

Mrbat
1.77
Sohar
1.38

finishing

Mrbat+0.00on par
Sohar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mrbat ↓

Sohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mrbat or draw
54%
Mrbat or Sohar
73%
Draw or Sohar
73%

Winning margin

Mrbat wins by 2+
10%
Sohar wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mrbat 1+ goals
64%
Mrbat 2+ goals
28%
Mrbat 3+ goals
9%
Sohar 1+ goals
76%
Sohar 2+ goals
42%
Sohar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mrbat (draw refunded)
37%
Sohar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mrbat at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Sohar away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mrbat attack 0.69 + Sohar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sohar attack 1.10 + Mrbat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mrbat scores more
27%
level
27%
Sohar scores more
46%

Sohar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mrbat 0 – 4 Sohar

Sohar beat Mrbat 4-0 in Professional League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at The Salalah Youth Complex in Salalah.