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Mrbat vs Al Nasr — Professional League 2019

Mrbat
Mrbat
FT
0 – 1
Al Nasr
Al Nasr
2/21/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 20The Salalah Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mrbat21%
×Draw27%
Al Nasr51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mrbat
0.80
Al Nasr
1.40

Al Nasr creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Mrbat
0.69
Al Nasr
1.03

allows per match

Mrbat
1.77
Al Nasr
0.91

finishing

Mrbat+0.00on par
Al Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mrbat ↓

Al Nasr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mrbat or draw
49%
Mrbat or Al Nasr
73%
Draw or Al Nasr
79%

Winning margin

Mrbat wins by 2+
7%
Al Nasr wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mrbat 1+ goals
55%
Mrbat 2+ goals
19%
Mrbat 3+ goals
5%
Al Nasr 1+ goals
75%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
41%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mrbat (draw refunded)
30%
Al Nasr (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mrbat at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Al Nasr away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mrbat attack 0.69 + Al Nasr defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Al Nasr attack 1.03 + Mrbat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mrbat scores more
21%
level
27%
Al Nasr scores more
51%

Al Nasr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mrbat vs Al Nasr

Al Nasr beat Mrbat 1-0 in Professional League on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at The Salalah Youth Complex in Salalah.