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MPS/Atletico Malmi vs PK-35 — Suomen Cup 2018

MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
PK-35
PK-35
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMosan Wembley TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

MPS/Atletico Malmi8%
×Draw12%
PK-3581%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MPS/Atletico Malmi
0.97
PK-35
3.29

PK-35 creates 239% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

MPS/Atletico Malmi
1.40
PK-35
3.77

allows per match

MPS/Atletico Malmi
2.80
PK-35
0.54

finishing

MPS/Atletico Malmi+0.00on par
PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MPS/Atletico Malmi ↓

PK-35 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

MPS/Atletico Malmi or draw
19%
MPS/Atletico Malmi or PK-35
88%
Draw or PK-35
92%

Winning margin

MPS/Atletico Malmi wins by 2+
2%
PK-35 wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

MPS/Atletico Malmi 1+ goals
62%
MPS/Atletico Malmi 2+ goals
25%
MPS/Atletico Malmi 3+ goals
7%
PK-35 1+ goals
96%
PK-35 2+ goals
83%
PK-35 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

MPS/Atletico Malmi (draw refunded)
9%
PK-35 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MPS/Atletico Malmi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

PK-35 away — creates 3.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MPS/Atletico Malmi attack 1.40 + PK-35 defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.97

PK-35 attack 3.77 + MPS/Atletico Malmi defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

MPS/Atletico Malmi scores more
8%
level
12%
PK-35 scores more
81%

PK-35 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MPS/Atletico Malmi vs PK-35

PK-35 beat MPS/Atletico Malmi 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Mosan Wembley TN in Helsinki.