MPS/Atletico Malmi 2–4 Honka Akatemia

MPS/Atletico Malmi

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Honka Akatemia

5/21/2023

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundMosan Wembley TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

MPS/Atletico Malmi18%

×Draw15%

Honka Akatemia67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPS/Atletico MalmiExpected goals in this matchHonka Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

3.40

MPS/Atletico Malmi

1.80

Honka Akatemia

3.40

Honka Akatemia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

4.00

2.80

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

MPS/Atletico Malmi

1.40

Honka Akatemia

4.00

allows per match

MPS/Atletico Malmi

2.80

Honka Akatemia

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MPS/Atletico Malmi+0.00on par

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MPS/Atletico Malmi ↓

Honka Akatemia →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

MPS/Atletico Malmi or draw

33%

MPS/Atletico Malmi or Honka Akatemia

85%

Draw or Honka Akatemia

82%

Winning margin

MPS/Atletico Malmi wins by 2+

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

MPS/Atletico Malmi 1+ goals

83%

MPS/Atletico Malmi 2+ goals

54%

MPS/Atletico Malmi 3+ goals

27%

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

96%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

84%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

MPS/Atletico Malmi (draw refunded)

21%

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

MPS/Atletico Malmi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

MPS/Atletico Malmi attack 1.40 + Honka Akatemia defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Honka Akatemia attack 4.00 + MPS/Atletico Malmi defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

MPS/Atletico Malmi scores more

18%

level

15%

Honka Akatemia scores more

67%

Honka Akatemia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff