MPS / Atletico Akatemia 0–4 HIFK 2: Result & Stats

MPS / Atletico Akatemia

0 – 4

HIFK 2

3/11/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundKartano 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MPS / Atletico Akatemia8%

×Draw12%

HIFK 280%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPS / Atletico AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchHIFK 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

3.20

MPS / Atletico Akatemia

0.97

HIFK 2

3.20

HIFK 2 creates 230% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

2.40

4.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

MPS / Atletico Akatemia

0.33

HIFK 2

2.40

allows per match

MPS / Atletico Akatemia

4.00

HIFK 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MPS / Atletico Akatemia+0.00on par

HIFK 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MPS / Atletico Akatemia ↓

HIFK 2 →

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–47%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

MPS / Atletico Akatemia or draw

20%

MPS / Atletico Akatemia or HIFK 2

88%

Draw or HIFK 2

92%

Winning margin

MPS / Atletico Akatemia wins by 2+

HIFK 2 wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

MPS / Atletico Akatemia 1+ goals

62%

MPS / Atletico Akatemia 2+ goals

25%

MPS / Atletico Akatemia 3+ goals

HIFK 2 1+ goals

96%

HIFK 2 2+ goals

82%

HIFK 2 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

MPS / Atletico Akatemia (draw refunded)

HIFK 2 (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

MPS / Atletico Akatemia at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

HIFK 2 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

MPS / Atletico Akatemia attack 0.33 + HIFK 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

HIFK 2 attack 2.40 + MPS / Atletico Akatemia defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

MPS / Atletico Akatemia scores more

level

12%

HIFK 2 scores more

80%

HIFK 2 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "HIFK 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff