MP 1–2 SJK Akatemia: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

MP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SJK Akatemia

A. Deng 87'

K. Ofori 67'

L. Kyllönen 41'

7/27/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 18Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MP35%

×Draw24%

SJK Akatemia41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPExpected goals in this matchSJK Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.59

MP

1.44

SJK Akatemia

1.59

SJK Akatemia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

1.05

creates per match

1.14

2.05

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

MP

1.05

SJK Akatemia

1.14

allows per match

MP

2.05

SJK Akatemia

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MP+0.00on par

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

SJK Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

MP or draw

59%

MP or SJK Akatemia

76%

Draw or SJK Akatemia

65%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+

16%

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals

76%

MP 2+ goals

42%

MP 3+ goals

18%

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

80%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

47%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)

46%

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.05 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

SJK Akatemia attack 1.14 + MP defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

MP scores more

35%

level

24%

SJK Akatemia scores more

41%

SJK Akatemia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

L. Kyllönen

46'

E. Ylönen← A. Hyppönen

60'

T. Karkulowski← L. Kyllönen

63'

A. Deng← O. Kilpeläinen

65'

65'

67'

71'

71'

A. Atarah← O. Hänninen

76'

V. Karttunen← R. Lehtonen

80'

E. Honkola← K. Ofori

83'

N. Levis← V. Huovila

83'

J. Jäppinen← A. Liljaniemi

87'

A. Deng

90+4'

N. Tahmbi

MP

SJK

25

16

27

35

21

⚽

▼

23

6

36

8

▼

Armah

28

⚽

▼

Ofori

17

▼

Hänninen

1

Honka-Hal

5

▼

15

2

11

22

3

▼

Liljaniem

6

Heinonen

8

▼

Lehtonen

19

▼

Hyppönen

9

▼

Huovila

Manager: J. Pasoja

46'▲E. Ylönen←▼A. Hyppönen

63'▲A. Deng←▼O. Kilpeläinen

76'▲V. Karttunen←▼R. Lehtonen

83'▲N. Levis←▼V. Huovila

83'▲J. Jäppinen←▼A. Liljaniemi

MP substitutes

23Ylönen10Deng45Karttunen13Levis14Jäppinen27Määttä30Heikkinen

Manager: T. Lehtinen

60'▲T. Karkulowski←▼L. Kyllönen

71'▲E. Essel←▼B. Armah

71'▲A. Atarah←▼O. Hänninen

80'▲E. Honkola←▼K. Ofori

SJK Akatemia substitutes

7Karkulowski3Essel19Atarah26Honkola11Ribeiro34Kaunismäki38Hautamäki

Match Recap: MP vs SJK Akatemia

SJK Akatemia beat MP 2-1 in Ykkösliiga on July 27, 2024.

Goals: L. Kyllönen (41'), K. Ofori (67'), A. Deng (87').

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.

MP vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: MP vs SJK Akatemia