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MP vs PIF — Ykkönen 2018

MP
MP
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
PIF
PIF
7/6/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 9Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MP58%
×Draw21%
PIF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
2.02
PIF
1.11

MP creates 82% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 14 away

creates per match

MP
1.75
PIF
1.07

allows per match

MP
1.15
PIF
2.29

finishing

MP+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

MP or draw
80%
MP or PIF
79%
Draw or PIF
42%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
35%
PIF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
87%
MP 2+ goals
60%
MP 3+ goals
33%
PIF 1+ goals
67%
PIF 2+ goals
30%
PIF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
74%
PIF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

PIF away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.75 + PIF defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

PIF attack 1.07 + MP defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

MP scores more
58%
level
21%
PIF scores more
20%

MP at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MP vs PIF

PIF beat MP 3-2 in Ykkönen on July 6, 2022.

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.