MP 2–0 Klubi-04: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

MP

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Klubi-04

E. Samson 25'

A. Goljahanpoor 23'

7/25/2021

Ykkönen · Round 8Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

MP48%

×Draw23%

Klubi-0429%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPExpected goals in this matchKlubi-04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.30

MP

1.75

Klubi-04

1.30

MP creates 35% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.75

creates per match

1.46

1.15

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

MP

1.75

Klubi-04

1.46

allows per match

MP

1.15

Klubi-04

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MP+0.00on par

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

Klubi-04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

MP or draw

71%

MP or Klubi-04

77%

Draw or Klubi-04

52%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+

26%

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals

83%

MP 2+ goals

52%

MP 3+ goals

25%

Klubi-04 1+ goals

73%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

37%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)

63%

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.75 + Klubi-04 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Klubi-04 attack 1.46 + MP defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MP scores more

48%

level

23%

Klubi-04 scores more

29%

MP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Goljahanpoor

25'

E. Samson

27'

J. Mäkinen← D. Gaucho

30'

R. Azodo

42'

D. Cukici

59'

C. James← D. Cukici

72'

A. Räisänen← A. Goljahanpoor

72'

W. Haapiainen← R. Azodo

87'

A. Ulmanen← A. Manninen

89'

J. Tarvainen← E. Samson

MP

Klubi-04

45

68

63

59

64

41

73

▼

Cukici

65

Aaltonen

71

▼

Gaucho

46

▼

42

1

20

3

12

2

6

5

10

⚽

▼

Goljahanp

28

▼

Manninen

13

Kantola

17

⚽

▼

Samson

Manager: J. Pasoja

72'▲A. Räisänen←▼A. Goljahanpoor

87'▲A. Ulmanen←▼A. Manninen

89'▲J. Tarvainen←▼E. Samson

MP substitutes

7Räisänen8Ulmanen25Tarvainen15Karjalainen16Ylönen22Voutilainen33Hautamo

Manager: M. Väyrynen

27'▲J. Mäkinen←▼D. Gaucho

59'▲C. James←▼D. Cukici

72'▲W. Haapiainen←▼R. Azodo

Klubi-04 substitutes

57Mäkinen52James48Haapiainen51Finnäs58Jansson62Lehtiranta78Ahlblad

Match Recap: MP vs Klubi-04

MP beat Klubi-04 2-0 in Ykkönen on July 25, 2021.

Goals: A. Goljahanpoor (23'), E. Samson (25').

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.

MP vs Klubi-04 — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: MP vs Klubi-04