MP 6–2 KäPa: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

MP

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

KäPa

S. Stenius 72', 45+1', 34'

V. Vehkonen 65'

L. Sahimaa 10'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba 7'

R. Huhtala 57' (pen)

M. Söderbäck 38' (pen)

6/28/2023

Ykkönen · Round 12Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MP55%

×Draw21%

KäPa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.29

MP

2.05

KäPa

1.29

MP creates 59% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 14 away

1.75

creates per match

1.43

1.15

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

MP

1.75

KäPa

1.43

allows per match

MP

1.15

KäPa

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MP+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

KäPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

MP or draw

76%

MP or KäPa

79%

Draw or KäPa

45%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+

32%

KäPa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals

87%

MP 2+ goals

61%

MP 3+ goals

33%

KäPa 1+ goals

72%

KäPa 2+ goals

37%

KäPa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)

70%

KäPa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.75 + KäPa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.05

KäPa attack 1.43 + MP defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MP scores more

55%

level

21%

KäPa scores more

24%

MP at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba

10'

L. Sahimaa

23'

S. Holtta

34'

S. Stenius

38'

M. SöderbäckPenalty

43'

N. Heikurinen

45+1'

S. Stenius

56'

C. Lönnqvist← N. Heikurinen

56'

J. Kekarainen← M. Söderbäck

56'

B. Rekola← C. NSombo

57'

R. HuhtalaPenalty

62'

C. Lonnqvist

65'

V. Vehkonen

66'

O. Ruoppi← N. Forsell

72'

S. Stenius

73'

T. Valakari← P. Forsman

73'

I. Kärsämä← T. Lahdensuo

81'

A. Babatunde← J. Luyeye-Lutumba

81'

V. Karttunen← S. Stenius

87'

N. Leinonen← J. Laitinen

87'

J. Kilpeläinen← E. Ylönen

MP

KäPa

1

Nokelaine

77

Kinnunen

16

Lappalain

4

⚽

Huhtala

3

▼

Heikurine

7

▼

N'Sombo

8

▼

Forsman

11

Tammivuor

10

⚽

▼

Söderbäck

22

Larsson

27

▼

Lahdensuo

1

Honka-Hal

7

Hölttä

15

▼

Laitinen

3

⚽

Vehkonen

2

Urgenc

69

▼

Forsell

21

⚽

▼

Luyeye-Lu

20

Orjala

25

⚽

Sahimaa

16

⚽3

▼

Stenius

23

▼

Ylönen

Manager: J. Pasoja

66'▲O. Ruoppi←▼N. Forsell

81'▲A. Babatunde←▼J. Luyeye-Lutumba

81'▲V. Karttunen←▼S. Stenius

87'▲N. Leinonen←▼J. Laitinen

87'▲J. Kilpeläinen←▼E. Ylönen

MP substitutes

34Ruoppi19Babatunde45Karttunen8Leinonen24Kilpeläinen12Uronen26Kuismala

Manager: Jordi Aluja

56'▲C. Lönnqvist←▼N. Heikurinen

56'▲J. Kekarainen←▼M. Söderbäck

56'▲B. Rekola←▼C. NSombo

73'▲T. Valakari←▼P. Forsman

73'▲I. Kärsämä←▼T. Lahdensuo

KäPa substitutes

17Lönnqvist28Kekarainen80Rekola18Valakari23Kärsämä12Pulkkinen21Piispa

Ykkönen: MP 6–2 KäPa

MP beat KäPa 6-2 in Ykkönen on June 28, 2023.

Goals: J. Luyeye-Lutumba (7'), L. Sahimaa (10'), S. Stenius (34', 45+1', 72'), M. Söderbäck (38' pen), R. Huhtala (57' pen), V. Vehkonen (65').

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.

MP vs KäPa — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: MP 6–2 KäPa