MP 2–2 HIFK Helsinki: Result & Stats

MP

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

HIFK Helsinki

9/1/2013

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Round 12Mikkelin Urheiluopisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

MP38%

×Draw26%

HIFK Helsinki36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPExpected goals in this matchHIFK Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.32

MP

1.36

HIFK Helsinki

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

1.61

creates per match

1.78

0.87

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

MP

1.61

HIFK Helsinki

1.78

allows per match

MP

0.87

HIFK Helsinki

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MP+0.00on par

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

HIFK Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

MP or draw

64%

MP or HIFK Helsinki

74%

Draw or HIFK Helsinki

62%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+

17%

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals

74%

MP 2+ goals

39%

MP 3+ goals

16%

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

73%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

38%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)

51%

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.61 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.78 + MP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

MP scores more

38%

level

26%

HIFK Helsinki scores more

36%

MP at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff