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MP vs AC Kajaani — Ykkönen 2018

MP
MP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
7/19/2020YkkönenYkkönen · Round 3Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

MP51%
×Draw22%
AC Kajaani27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
1.97
AC Kajaani
1.40

MP creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

creates per match

MP
1.75
AC Kajaani
1.64

allows per match

MP
1.15
AC Kajaani
2.18

finishing

MP+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

MP or draw
73%
MP or AC Kajaani
78%
Draw or AC Kajaani
49%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
29%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
86%
MP 2+ goals
58%
MP 3+ goals
31%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
75%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
41%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
65%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.75 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.97

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + MP defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

MP scores more
51%
level
22%
AC Kajaani scores more
27%

MP at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: MP 2–1 AC Kajaani

MP beat AC Kajaani 2-1 in Ykkönen on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.