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MP II vs MP — Suomen Cup 2018

MP II
MP II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
MP
MP
5/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundMikkeli Jalkapallohalli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MP II13%
×Draw15%
MP72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP II
1.27
MP
3.07

MP creates 142% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

MP II
1.00
MP
3.47

allows per match

MP II
2.67
MP
1.53

finishing

MP II+0.00on par
MP+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP II ↓

MP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

MP II or draw
28%
MP II or MP
85%
Draw or MP
87%

Winning margin

MP II wins by 2+
5%
MP wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

MP II 1+ goals
72%
MP II 2+ goals
36%
MP II 3+ goals
14%
MP 1+ goals
95%
MP 2+ goals
80%
MP 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

MP II (draw refunded)
15%
MP (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

MP away — creates 3.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP II attack 1.00 + MP defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

MP attack 3.47 + MP II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

MP II scores more
13%
level
15%
MP scores more
72%

MP at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MP II 0 – 3 MP

MP beat MP II 3-0 in Suomen Cup on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Mikkeli Jalkapallohalli tekonurmi in Mikkeli.