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MP II vs KeuPa — Suomen Cup 2018

MP II
MP II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
KeuPa
KeuPa
4/23/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMikkeli Jalkapallohalli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MP II14%
×Draw16%
KeuPa70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP II
1.20
KeuPa
2.83

KeuPa creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

MP II
1.00
KeuPa
3.00

allows per match

MP II
2.67
KeuPa
1.40

finishing

MP II+0.00on par
KeuPa+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP II ↓

KeuPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

MP II or draw
30%
MP II or KeuPa
84%
Draw or KeuPa
86%

Winning margin

MP II wins by 2+
5%
KeuPa wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

MP II 1+ goals
70%
MP II 2+ goals
34%
MP II 3+ goals
12%
KeuPa 1+ goals
94%
KeuPa 2+ goals
77%
KeuPa 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

MP II (draw refunded)
16%
KeuPa (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

KeuPa away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP II attack 1.00 + KeuPa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

KeuPa attack 3.00 + MP II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

MP II scores more
14%
level
16%
KeuPa scores more
70%

KeuPa at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "KeuPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MP II 2 – 1 KeuPa

MP II beat KeuPa 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 23, 2024.

The match was played at Mikkeli Jalkapallohalli tekonurmi in Mikkeli.