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Mozambique vs Guinea-Bissau — Friendlies 2026

Mozambique
Mozambique
CANC
00:00
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
10/13/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mozambique66%
×Draw22%
Guinea-Bissau12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mozambique
1.78
Guinea-Bissau
0.59

Mozambique creates 202% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mozambique
1.00
Guinea-Bissau
0.43

allows per match

Mozambique
0.75
Guinea-Bissau
2.57

finishing

Mozambique+0.00on par
Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mozambique ↓

Guinea-Bissau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mozambique or draw
88%
Mozambique or Guinea-Bissau
78%
Draw or Guinea-Bissau
34%

Winning margin

Mozambique wins by 2+
39%
Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mozambique 1+ goals
83%
Mozambique 2+ goals
53%
Mozambique 3+ goals
26%
Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals
45%
Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals
12%
Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mozambique (draw refunded)
85%
Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mozambique at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Guinea-Bissau away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mozambique attack 1.00 + Guinea-Bissau defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Guinea-Bissau attack 0.43 + Mozambique defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mozambique scores more
66%
level
22%
Guinea-Bissau scores more
12%

Mozambique at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mozambique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mozambique face Guinea-Bissau (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Mozambique hosting Guinea-Bissau. Match starts October 13, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mozambique host Guinea-Bissau at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.