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Moyola Park vs Dergview — League #561 2026

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
PST
18:45
Dergview
Dergview
10/3/2025League #561League #561 · Round 4Mill Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyola Park64%
×Draw18%
Dergview18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyola Park
2.53
Dergview
1.27

Moyola Park creates 99% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moyola Park
2.06
Dergview
1.33

allows per match

Moyola Park
1.21
Dergview
3.00

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par
Dergview+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Dergview →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw
82%
Moyola Park or Dergview
82%
Draw or Dergview
36%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+
43%
Dergview wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals
92%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
71%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
46%
Dergview 1+ goals
72%
Dergview 2+ goals
36%
Dergview 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)
78%
Dergview (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Dergview away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.06 + Dergview defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.53

Dergview attack 1.33 + Moyola Park defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Moyola Park scores more
64%
level
18%
Dergview scores more
18%

Moyola Park at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Moyola Park host Dergview

October 3, 2025: Moyola Park take on Dergview in League #561. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Moyola Park host Dergview at Mill Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.