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Dergview vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Dergview
Dergview
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
4/14/2026League #561League #561 · Round 22Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dergview59%
×Draw21%
Moyola Park20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dergview
2.09
Moyola Park
1.13

Dergview creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dergview
2.25
Moyola Park
1.25

allows per match

Dergview
1.00
Moyola Park
1.94

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dergview or draw
80%
Dergview or Moyola Park
79%
Draw or Moyola Park
41%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+
36%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals
88%
Dergview 2+ goals
62%
Dergview 3+ goals
34%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
68%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
31%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)
75%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 2.25 + Moyola Park defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Moyola Park attack 1.25 + Dergview defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dergview scores more
59%
level
21%
Moyola Park scores more
20%

Dergview at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dergview will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Dergview 1–0 Moyola Park

Dergview beat Moyola Park 1-0 in League #561 on April 14, 2026.

The match was played at Darragh Park in Castlederg.