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Moyola Park vs Banbridge Town — League #561 2026

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
FT
2 – 1
Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
2/8/2025League #561League #561 · Round 16Mill Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Moyola Park69%
×Draw17%
Banbridge Town15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyola Park
2.68
Banbridge Town
1.18

Moyola Park creates 127% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 18 away

creates per match

Moyola Park
2.30
Banbridge Town
1.06

allows per match

Moyola Park
1.30
Banbridge Town
3.06

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par
Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Banbridge Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw
85%
Moyola Park or Banbridge Town
83%
Draw or Banbridge Town
31%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+
47%
Banbridge Town wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals
93%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
74%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
49%
Banbridge Town 1+ goals
69%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
33%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)
82%
Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.30 + Banbridge Town defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.68

Banbridge Town attack 1.06 + Moyola Park defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Moyola Park scores more
69%
level
17%
Banbridge Town scores more
15%

Moyola Park at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Moyola Park 2–1 Banbridge Town

Moyola Park beat Banbridge Town 2-1 in League #561 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Mill Meadow in Caisleán Dhásain.