Moyola Park 1–3 Ballymena United: Result & Stats

Moyola Park

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ballymena United

D. Parkhouse 33'

J. Archer 80'

S. McEleney 39'

D. Mccallion 4'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyola Park16%

×Draw20%

Ballymena United64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyola ParkExpected goals in this matchBallymena United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.17

Moyola Park

1.00

Ballymena United

2.17

Ballymena United creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Moyola Park

1.00

Ballymena United

2.00

allows per match

Moyola Park

2.33

Ballymena United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par

Ballymena United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Ballymena United →

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw

36%

Moyola Park or Ballymena United

80%

Draw or Ballymena United

84%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+

Ballymena United wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals

63%

Moyola Park 2+ goals

26%

Moyola Park 3+ goals

Ballymena United 1+ goals

89%

Ballymena United 2+ goals

64%

Ballymena United 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)

20%

Ballymena United (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Ballymena United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 1.00 + Ballymena United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ballymena United attack 2.00 + Moyola Park defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Moyola Park scores more

16%

level

20%

Ballymena United scores more

64%

Ballymena United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

39'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff