Moyola Park 0–1 Ballymacash Rangers: Result & Stats

Moyola Park

FT

0 – 1

Ballymacash Rangers

4/22/2023

League #561 · Promotion Round - 2Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moyola Park51%

×Draw23%

Ballymacash Rangers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyola ParkExpected goals in this matchBallymacash Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.19

Moyola Park

1.78

Ballymacash Rangers

1.19

Moyola Park creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 6 away

2.06

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Moyola Park

2.06

Ballymacash Rangers

1.17

allows per match

Moyola Park

1.21

Ballymacash Rangers

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par

Ballymacash Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Ballymacash Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw

74%

Moyola Park or Ballymacash Rangers

77%

Draw or Ballymacash Rangers

49%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+

28%

Ballymacash Rangers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals

83%

Moyola Park 2+ goals

53%

Moyola Park 3+ goals

26%

Ballymacash Rangers 1+ goals

70%

Ballymacash Rangers 2+ goals

33%

Ballymacash Rangers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)

67%

Ballymacash Rangers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Ballymacash Rangers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.06 + Ballymacash Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ballymacash Rangers attack 1.17 + Moyola Park defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moyola Park scores more

51%

level

23%

Ballymacash Rangers scores more

26%

Moyola Park at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff