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Ballymacash Rangers vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Ballymacash Rangers
Ballymacash Rangers
FT
1 – 0
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
4/1/2025League #561League #561 · Round 15The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ballymacash Rangers60%
×Draw22%
Moyola Park19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballymacash Rangers
1.97
Moyola Park
1.00

Ballymacash Rangers creates 97% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Moyola Park
1.25

allows per match

Ballymacash Rangers
0.75
Moyola Park
1.94

finishing

Ballymacash Rangers+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballymacash Rangers ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ballymacash Rangers or draw
81%
Ballymacash Rangers or Moyola Park
78%
Draw or Moyola Park
40%

Winning margin

Ballymacash Rangers wins by 2+
36%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ballymacash Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Ballymacash Rangers 2+ goals
58%
Ballymacash Rangers 3+ goals
31%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
63%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
26%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ballymacash Rangers (draw refunded)
76%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballymacash Rangers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballymacash Rangers attack 2.00 + Moyola Park defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

Moyola Park attack 1.25 + Ballymacash Rangers defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ballymacash Rangers scores more
60%
level
22%
Moyola Park scores more
19%

Ballymacash Rangers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ballymacash Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballymacash Rangers vs Moyola Park

Ballymacash Rangers beat Moyola Park 1-0 in League #561 on April 1, 2025.

The match was played at The Bluebell Stadium in Lisburn.