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Moyola Park vs Ballyclare Comrades — League #561 2026

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
1/16/2026League #561League #561

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyola Park71%
×Draw16%
Ballyclare Comrades13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyola Park
2.70
Ballyclare Comrades
1.10

Moyola Park creates 145% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moyola Park
2.06
Ballyclare Comrades
1.00

allows per match

Moyola Park
1.21
Ballyclare Comrades
3.33

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par
Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw
87%
Moyola Park or Ballyclare Comrades
84%
Draw or Ballyclare Comrades
29%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+
49%
Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals
93%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
75%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
50%
Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
67%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
30%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)
84%
Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.06 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.70

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.00 + Moyola Park defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Moyola Park scores more
71%
level
16%
Ballyclare Comrades scores more
13%

Moyola Park at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moyola Park vs Ballyclare Comrades

Moyola Park beat Ballyclare Comrades 3-1 in League #561 on January 16, 2026.