Moyale Barracks 2–1 Mlatho Mponela: Result & Stats

Moyale Barracks

FT

2 – 1

Mlatho Mponela

8/4/2019

Super League · Round 1Mzuzu Stadium (Mzuzu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyale Barracks56%

×Draw27%

Mlatho Mponela17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyale BarracksExpected goals in this matchMlatho Mponela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.68

Moyale Barracks

1.45

Mlatho Mponela

0.68

Moyale Barracks creates 113% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 3 away

1.23

creates per match

0.67

0.69

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Moyale Barracks

1.23

Mlatho Mponela

0.67

allows per match

Moyale Barracks

0.69

Mlatho Mponela

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Mlatho Mponela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Mlatho Mponela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw

83%

Moyale Barracks or Mlatho Mponela

73%

Draw or Mlatho Mponela

44%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

28%

Mlatho Mponela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

77%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

42%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

18%

Mlatho Mponela 1+ goals

49%

Mlatho Mponela 2+ goals

15%

Mlatho Mponela 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

76%

Mlatho Mponela (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Mlatho Mponela away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Mlatho Mponela defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mlatho Mponela attack 0.67 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more

56%

level

27%

Mlatho Mponela scores more

17%

Moyale Barracks at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff