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Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Tigers — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
7/23/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Moyale Barracks51%
×Draw30%
Mighty Tigers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Mighty Tigers
0.61

Moyale Barracks creates 102% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 76 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Mighty Tigers
0.53

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Mighty Tigers
1.24

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Mighty Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
82%
Moyale Barracks or Mighty Tigers
70%
Draw or Mighty Tigers
49%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
23%
Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
71%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
35%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
13%
Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
46%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
13%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
74%
Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Mighty Tigers away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Mighty Tigers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mighty Tigers attack 0.53 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
51%
level
30%
Mighty Tigers scores more
18%

Moyale Barracks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 3–1 Mighty Tigers

Moyale Barracks beat Mighty Tigers 3-1 in Super League on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.