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Mighty Tigers vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
10/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mighty Tigers45%
×Draw29%
Moyale Barracks27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
1.28
Moyale Barracks
0.92

Mighty Tigers creates 39% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
73%
Mighty Tigers or Moyale Barracks
71%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
55%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
20%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
72%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
37%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
14%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
60%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
23%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
63%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
45%
level
29%
Moyale Barracks scores more
27%

Mighty Tigers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Tigers vs Moyale Barracks

Mighty Tigers beat Moyale Barracks 3-0 in Super League on October 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.