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Moyale Barracks vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
6/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Moyale Barracks55%
×Draw27%
Dedza Dynamos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.46
Dedza Dynamos
0.73

Moyale Barracks creates 100% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 65 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
81%
Moyale Barracks or Dedza Dynamos
73%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
45%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
28%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
77%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
43%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
18%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
52%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
17%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
74%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
55%
level
27%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
19%

Moyale Barracks at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 2–0 Dedza Dynamos

Moyale Barracks beat Dedza Dynamos 2-0 in Super League on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.