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Dedza Dynamos vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
11/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos49%
×Draw29%
Moyale Barracks23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
1.29
Moyale Barracks
0.78

Dedza Dynamos creates 65% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
77%
Dedza Dynamos or Moyale Barracks
71%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
51%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
23%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
72%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
37%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
14%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
54%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
18%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
68%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
49%
level
29%
Moyale Barracks scores more
23%

Dedza Dynamos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dedza Dynamos vs Moyale Barracks

Dedza Dynamos beat Moyale Barracks 1-0 in Super League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Dedza Stadium in Dedza.