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Moyale Barracks vs Creck — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Creck
Creck
L. Mkandawire 4'
5/23/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Moyale Barracks46%
×Draw30%
Creck24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.20
Creck
0.77

Moyale Barracks creates 56% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 35 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Creck
0.86

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Creck
1.17

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Creck+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Creck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
76%
Moyale Barracks or Creck
70%
Draw or Creck
54%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
20%
Creck wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
70%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
34%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
12%
Creck 1+ goals
54%
Creck 2+ goals
18%
Creck 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
66%
Creck (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Creck away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Creck defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Creck attack 0.86 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
46%
level
30%
Creck scores more
24%

Moyale Barracks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Mkandawire
90'
R. Alli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moyale Barracks vs Creck

Moyale Barracks beat Creck 1-0 in Super League on May 23, 2026.

Goals: L. Mkandawire (4').