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Moyale Barracks vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
5/9/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Moyale Barracks57%
×Draw28%
Chitipa United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.39
Chitipa United
0.58

Moyale Barracks creates 140% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 65 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
84%
Moyale Barracks or Chitipa United
72%
Draw or Chitipa United
43%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
28%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
75%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
40%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
16%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
44%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
12%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
79%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
57%
level
28%
Chitipa United scores more
16%

Moyale Barracks at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 3–2 Chitipa United

Moyale Barracks beat Chitipa United 3-2 in Super League on May 9, 2026.