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Moyale Barracks vs Baka City — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baka City
Baka City
10/31/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Moyale Barracks77%
×Draw16%
Baka City7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
2.35
Baka City
0.58

Moyale Barracks creates 305% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Baka City
0.47

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Baka City
3.47

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Baka City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Baka City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
93%
Moyale Barracks or Baka City
84%
Draw or Baka City
23%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
53%
Baka City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
90%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
68%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
41%
Baka City 1+ goals
44%
Baka City 2+ goals
12%
Baka City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
91%
Baka City (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Baka City away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Baka City defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.35

Baka City attack 0.47 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
77%
level
16%
Baka City scores more
7%

Moyale Barracks at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moyale Barracks vs Baka City

Moyale Barracks beat Baka City 4-1 in Super League on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.