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Moutfort / Medingen vs Sandweiler — Cup 2020

Moutfort / Medingen
Moutfort / Medingen
FT
2 – 5
Sandweiler
Sandweiler
9/10/2023CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain Am Brill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moutfort / Medingen26%
×Draw18%
Sandweiler56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moutfort / Medingen
1.92
Sandweiler
2.83

Sandweiler creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Moutfort / Medingen
1.83
Sandweiler
2.50

allows per match

Moutfort / Medingen
3.17
Sandweiler
2.00

finishing

Moutfort / Medingen+0.00on par
Sandweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moutfort / Medingen ↓

Sandweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Moutfort / Medingen or draw
44%
Moutfort / Medingen or Sandweiler
82%
Draw or Sandweiler
74%

Winning margin

Moutfort / Medingen wins by 2+
13%
Sandweiler wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Moutfort / Medingen 1+ goals
85%
Moutfort / Medingen 2+ goals
57%
Moutfort / Medingen 3+ goals
30%
Sandweiler 1+ goals
94%
Sandweiler 2+ goals
77%
Sandweiler 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Moutfort / Medingen (draw refunded)
32%
Sandweiler (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moutfort / Medingen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Sandweiler away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moutfort / Medingen attack 1.83 + Sandweiler defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sandweiler attack 2.50 + Moutfort / Medingen defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moutfort / Medingen scores more
26%
level
18%
Sandweiler scores more
56%

Sandweiler at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sandweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moutfort / Medingen vs Sandweiler

Sandweiler beat Moutfort / Medingen 5-2 in Cup on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain Am Brill in Moutfort.