Moutfort / Medingen 1–4 Red Black Egalité

Moutfort / Medingen

1 – 4

Red Black Egalité

9/9/2020

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain Am Brill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moutfort / Medingen9%

×Draw11%

Red Black Egalité80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moutfort / MedingenExpected goals in this matchRed Black Egalité

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

4.08

Moutfort / Medingen

1.42

Red Black Egalité

4.08

Red Black Egalité creates 187% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

5.00

3.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Moutfort / Medingen

1.83

Red Black Egalité

5.00

allows per match

Moutfort / Medingen

3.17

Red Black Egalité

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moutfort / Medingen+0.00on par

Red Black Egalité+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moutfort / Medingen ↓

Red Black Egalité →

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Moutfort / Medingen or draw

20%

Moutfort / Medingen or Red Black Egalité

89%

Draw or Red Black Egalité

91%

Winning margin

Moutfort / Medingen wins by 2+

Red Black Egalité wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Moutfort / Medingen 1+ goals

76%

Moutfort / Medingen 2+ goals

41%

Moutfort / Medingen 3+ goals

17%

Red Black Egalité 1+ goals

98%

Red Black Egalité 2+ goals

90%

Red Black Egalité 3+ goals

74%

Draw no bet

Moutfort / Medingen (draw refunded)

10%

Red Black Egalité (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moutfort / Medingen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Red Black Egalité away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moutfort / Medingen attack 1.83 + Red Black Egalité defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Red Black Egalité attack 5.00 + Moutfort / Medingen defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 4.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Moutfort / Medingen scores more

level

11%

Red Black Egalité scores more

80%

Red Black Egalité at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Red Black Egalité will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff