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Mousehole vs Frome Town — League #56 2026

Mousehole
Mousehole
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Frome Town
Frome Town
3/21/2026League #56League #56

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mousehole20%
×Draw23%
Frome Town57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mousehole
0.98
Frome Town
1.84

Frome Town creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mousehole
0.67
Frome Town
2.35

allows per match

Mousehole
1.33
Frome Town
1.29

finishing

Mousehole+0.00on par
Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mousehole ↓

Frome Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mousehole or draw
43%
Mousehole or Frome Town
77%
Draw or Frome Town
80%

Winning margin

Mousehole wins by 2+
7%
Frome Town wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Mousehole 1+ goals
62%
Mousehole 2+ goals
26%
Mousehole 3+ goals
8%
Frome Town 1+ goals
84%
Frome Town 2+ goals
55%
Frome Town 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mousehole (draw refunded)
26%
Frome Town (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mousehole at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mousehole attack 0.67 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Mousehole defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mousehole scores more
20%
level
23%
Frome Town scores more
57%

Frome Town at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Mousehole 0–2 Frome Town

Frome Town beat Mousehole 2-0 in League #56 on March 21, 2026.