Mousehole 0–0 Falmouth Town: Result & Stats

Mousehole

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Falmouth Town

12/27/2025

League #56 · Southern South - 24Interiora Trungle Parc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mousehole49%

×Draw24%

Falmouth Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MouseholeExpected goals in this matchFalmouth Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.25

Mousehole

1.74

Falmouth Town

1.25

Mousehole creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.67

creates per match

1.18

1.33

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Mousehole

0.67

Falmouth Town

1.18

allows per match

Mousehole

1.33

Falmouth Town

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mousehole+0.00on par

Falmouth Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mousehole ↓

Falmouth Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mousehole or draw

72%

Mousehole or Falmouth Town

76%

Draw or Falmouth Town

51%

Winning margin

Mousehole wins by 2+

26%

Falmouth Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mousehole 1+ goals

82%

Mousehole 2+ goals

52%

Mousehole 3+ goals

25%

Falmouth Town 1+ goals

71%

Falmouth Town 2+ goals

36%

Falmouth Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mousehole (draw refunded)

64%

Falmouth Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mousehole at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Falmouth Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mousehole attack 0.67 + Falmouth Town defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.74

Falmouth Town attack 1.18 + Mousehole defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mousehole scores more

49%

level

24%

Falmouth Town scores more

28%

Mousehole at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mousehole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff