Mousehole 2–2 Exmouth: Result & Stats | League #56

Mousehole

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Exmouth

11/11/2025

League #56 · Southern South - 16Interiora Trungle Parc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mousehole50%

×Draw24%

Exmouth26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MouseholeExpected goals in this matchExmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.17

Mousehole

1.73

Exmouth

1.17

Mousehole creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Mousehole

0.67

Exmouth

1.00

allows per match

Mousehole

1.33

Exmouth

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mousehole+0.00on par

Exmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mousehole ↓

Exmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mousehole or draw

74%

Mousehole or Exmouth

76%

Draw or Exmouth

50%

Winning margin

Mousehole wins by 2+

27%

Exmouth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mousehole 1+ goals

82%

Mousehole 2+ goals

52%

Mousehole 3+ goals

25%

Exmouth 1+ goals

69%

Exmouth 2+ goals

33%

Exmouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mousehole (draw refunded)

66%

Exmouth (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mousehole at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Exmouth away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mousehole attack 0.67 + Exmouth defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Exmouth attack 1.00 + Mousehole defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mousehole scores more

50%

level

24%

Exmouth scores more

26%

Mousehole at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mousehole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff