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Moura vs Portel — Taça de Portugal 2018

Moura
Moura
FT
1 – 0
Portel
Portel
9/8/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Moura Atlético Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moura57%
×Draw23%
Portel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moura
1.86
Portel
1.00

Moura creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moura
1.40
Portel
0.00

allows per match

Moura
2.00
Portel
2.33

finishing

Moura+0.00on par
Portel+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moura ↓

Portel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Moura or draw
80%
Moura or Portel
77%
Draw or Portel
43%

Winning margin

Moura wins by 2+
33%
Portel wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Moura 1+ goals
84%
Moura 2+ goals
55%
Moura 3+ goals
28%
Portel 1+ goals
63%
Portel 2+ goals
26%
Portel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moura (draw refunded)
74%
Portel (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moura at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Portel away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moura attack 1.40 + Portel defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Portel attack 0.00 + Moura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Moura scores more
57%
level
23%
Portel scores more
20%

Moura at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Moura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Moura 1–0 Portel

Moura beat Portel 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Moura Atlético Clube in Moura.