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Moura vs Lagos — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Moura
Moura
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lagos
Lagos
12/16/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 7Estádio do Moura Atlético Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Moura22%
×Draw22%
Lagos56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moura
1.15
Lagos
1.95

Lagos creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Moura
1.00
Lagos
1.20

allows per match

Moura
2.70
Lagos
1.30

finishing

Moura+0.00on par
Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moura ↓

Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Moura or draw
44%
Moura or Lagos
78%
Draw or Lagos
78%

Winning margin

Moura wins by 2+
9%
Lagos wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Moura 1+ goals
68%
Moura 2+ goals
32%
Moura 3+ goals
11%
Lagos 1+ goals
86%
Lagos 2+ goals
58%
Lagos 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Moura (draw refunded)
28%
Lagos (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.70 · 10 matches

Lagos away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moura attack 1.00 + Lagos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lagos attack 1.20 + Moura defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moura scores more
22%
level
22%
Lagos scores more
56%

Lagos at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moura 0 – 1 Lagos

Lagos beat Moura 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Moura Atlético Clube in Moura.