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Moura vs Beira-Mar — Taça de Portugal 2018

Moura
Moura
FT
0 – 3
Beira-Mar
Beira-Mar
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Moura Atlético Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Moura22%
×Draw20%
Beira-Mar58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moura
1.32
Beira-Mar
2.25

Beira-Mar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Moura
1.40
Beira-Mar
2.50

allows per match

Moura
2.00
Beira-Mar
1.25

finishing

Moura+0.00on par
Beira-Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moura ↓

Beira-Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Moura or draw
42%
Moura or Beira-Mar
80%
Draw or Beira-Mar
78%

Winning margin

Moura wins by 2+
9%
Beira-Mar wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Moura 1+ goals
73%
Moura 2+ goals
38%
Moura 3+ goals
15%
Beira-Mar 1+ goals
89%
Beira-Mar 2+ goals
65%
Beira-Mar 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Moura (draw refunded)
27%
Beira-Mar (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moura at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Beira-Mar away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moura attack 1.40 + Beira-Mar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Beira-Mar attack 2.50 + Moura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Moura scores more
22%
level
20%
Beira-Mar scores more
58%

Beira-Mar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moura vs Beira-Mar

Beira-Mar beat Moura 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Moura Atlético Clube in Moura.