Mounties Wanderers 2–2 St. George Saints

Mounties Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

St. George Saints

8/26/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 30Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mounties Wanderers30%

×Draw22%

St. George Saints49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mounties WanderersExpected goals in this matchSt. George Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.01

Mounties Wanderers

1.54

St. George Saints

2.01

St. George Saints creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

1.79

2.23

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers

1.15

St. George Saints

1.79

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers

2.23

St. George Saints

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

St. George Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

St. George Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw

51%

Mounties Wanderers or St. George Saints

78%

Draw or St. George Saints

70%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

14%

St. George Saints wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

79%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

45%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

20%

St. George Saints 1+ goals

87%

St. George Saints 2+ goals

59%

St. George Saints 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

38%

St. George Saints (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

St. George Saints away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + St. George Saints defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

St. George Saints attack 1.79 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more

30%

level

22%

St. George Saints scores more

49%

St. George Saints at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. George Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff