Mounties Wanderers 1–4 Newcastle Jets II

Mounties Wanderers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Newcastle Jets II

J. Cakovski 79'

X. Bertoncello 78'

O. Cockle 70'

E. Debono 65', 14'

7/19/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 24Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mounties Wanderers26%

×Draw21%

Newcastle Jets II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mounties WanderersExpected goals in this matchNewcastle Jets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.17

Mounties Wanderers

1.46

Newcastle Jets II

2.17

Newcastle Jets II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 27 away

1.15

creates per match

2.11

2.23

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers

1.15

Newcastle Jets II

2.11

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers

2.23

Newcastle Jets II

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Newcastle Jets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Newcastle Jets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw

46%

Mounties Wanderers or Newcastle Jets II

79%

Draw or Newcastle Jets II

74%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Newcastle Jets II wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

77%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

43%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

18%

Newcastle Jets II 1+ goals

89%

Newcastle Jets II 2+ goals

64%

Newcastle Jets II 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

32%

Newcastle Jets II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Newcastle Jets II away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Newcastle Jets II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Newcastle Jets II attack 2.11 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more

26%

level

21%

Newcastle Jets II scores more

54%

Newcastle Jets II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Newcastle Jets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

E. Debono

65'

E. Debono

70'

O. Cockle

78'

X. Bertoncello

79'

J. Cakovski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff