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Mounties Wanderers vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
0 – 4
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
6/18/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mounties Wanderers42%
×Draw23%
Dunbar Rovers35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.76
Dunbar Rovers
1.58

Mounties Wanderers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
65%
Mounties Wanderers or Dunbar Rovers
77%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
58%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
22%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
83%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
52%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
26%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
79%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
47%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
55%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
42%
level
23%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
35%

Mounties Wanderers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mounties Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Mounties Wanderers 0–4 Dunbar Rovers

Dunbar Rovers beat Mounties Wanderers 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Cook Park Mount Pritchard in Sydney.