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Mounties Wanderers vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
2 – 3
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
5/7/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 14Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mounties Wanderers34%
×Draw23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.56
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.77

Bonnyrigg White Eagles creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 62 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
57%
Mounties Wanderers or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
77%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
66%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
16%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
79%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
46%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
83%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
53%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
44%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
34%
level
23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
43%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mounties Wanderers vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Bonnyrigg White Eagles beat Mounties Wanderers 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Cook Park Mount Pritchard in Sydney.