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Mounties Wanderers vs Blacktown Spartans — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
A. Kyra 61' (pen)
8/16/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 28Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mounties Wanderers30%
×Draw23%
Blacktown Spartans48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.41
Blacktown Spartans
1.84

Blacktown Spartans creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Blacktown Spartans
1.45

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Blacktown Spartans
1.67

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Blacktown Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
52%
Mounties Wanderers or Blacktown Spartans
77%
Draw or Blacktown Spartans
70%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
13%
Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
76%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
41%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
17%
Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
84%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
55%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
38%
Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
30%
level
23%
Blacktown Spartans scores more
48%

Blacktown Spartans at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
A. KyraPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mounties Wanderers vs Blacktown Spartans

Blacktown Spartans beat Mounties Wanderers 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Kyra (61' pen).

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.