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Mount Pleasant Academy vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
12/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Draxhall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Mount Pleasant Academy54%
×Draw25%
Tivoli Gardens21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.64
Tivoli Gardens
0.93

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 76% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.84
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
0.62
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mount Pleasant Academy ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mount Pleasant Academy or draw
79%
Mount Pleasant Academy or Tivoli Gardens
75%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
46%

Winning margin

Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
29%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
81%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
49%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
23%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
61%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
24%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
72%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mount Pleasant Academy at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.62 · 104 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.84 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
54%
level
25%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
21%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mount Pleasant Academy vs Tivoli Gardens

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Tivoli Gardens 5-0 in Premier League on December 11, 2025.

The match was played at Draxhall Sports Complex in Runaway Bay.