Mount Pleasant Academy 1–1 Portmore United

Mount Pleasant Academy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Portmore United

3/2/2026

Premier League · Round 25Draxhall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Mount Pleasant Academy47%

×Draw28%

Portmore United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mount Pleasant AcademyExpected goals in this matchPortmore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.92

Mount Pleasant Academy

1.37

Portmore United

0.92

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 49% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 96 away

1.84

creates per match

1.21

0.62

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Mount Pleasant Academy

1.84

Portmore United

1.21

allows per match

Mount Pleasant Academy

0.62

Portmore United

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par

Portmore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mount Pleasant Academy ↓

Portmore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mount Pleasant Academy or draw

75%

Mount Pleasant Academy or Portmore United

72%

Draw or Portmore United

53%

Winning margin

Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+

23%

Portmore United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals

75%

Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals

40%

Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals

16%

Portmore United 1+ goals

60%

Portmore United 2+ goals

23%

Portmore United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)

65%

Portmore United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mount Pleasant Academy at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.62 · 104 matches

Portmore United away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.84 + Portmore United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.37

Portmore United attack 1.21 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mount Pleasant Academy scores more

47%

level

28%

Portmore United scores more

25%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff