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Mount Pleasant Academy vs Dunbeholden — Premier League 2019

Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
2/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Draxhall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Mount Pleasant Academy56%
×Draw25%
Dunbeholden19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.60
Dunbeholden
0.82

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 95% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.84
Dunbeholden
1.02

allows per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
0.62
Dunbeholden
1.37

finishing

Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par
Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mount Pleasant Academy ↓

Dunbeholden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mount Pleasant Academy or draw
81%
Mount Pleasant Academy or Dunbeholden
75%
Draw or Dunbeholden
44%

Winning margin

Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
30%
Dunbeholden wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
80%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
47%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
22%
Dunbeholden 1+ goals
56%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
20%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
74%
Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mount Pleasant Academy at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.62 · 104 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.84 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
56%
level
25%
Dunbeholden scores more
19%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mount Pleasant Academy 4–0 Dunbeholden

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Dunbeholden 4-0 in Premier League on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Draxhall Sports Complex in Runaway Bay.