Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mount Pleasant Academy vs Cavalier — Premier League 2019

Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cavalier
Cavalier
9/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Draxhall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Mount Pleasant Academy45%
×Draw27%
Cavalier28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.39
Cavalier
1.02

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 106 away

creates per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.84
Cavalier
1.43

allows per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
0.62
Cavalier
0.93

finishing

Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par
Cavalier+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mount Pleasant Academy ↓

Cavalier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mount Pleasant Academy or draw
72%
Mount Pleasant Academy or Cavalier
73%
Draw or Cavalier
55%

Winning margin

Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
22%
Cavalier wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
75%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
40%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
16%
Cavalier 1+ goals
64%
Cavalier 2+ goals
27%
Cavalier 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
62%
Cavalier (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mount Pleasant Academy at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.62 · 104 matches

Cavalier away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.84 + Cavalier defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cavalier attack 1.43 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
45%
level
27%
Cavalier scores more
28%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mount Pleasant Academy 2–1 Cavalier

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Cavalier 2-1 in Premier League on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Draxhall Sports Complex in Runaway Bay.